After a period of recalibration following the loss of its caliphate in western Iraq and Syria and the subsequent death of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State has once again become more active in the two countries, even as it shifts its attention to new theaters of operation, like the Sahel, Afghanistan and Southeast Asia. And the Russian invasion of Ukraine has now brought high-intensity, interstate warfare to the heart of Europe for the first time since the end of World War II.Īt the same time, the nature of terrorism is also changing. Even in situations where there is some tenuous hope of reconciliation, there is also uncertainty-such as South Sudan, where a 2018 peace deal that put an end to years of civil war has held, even as widespread violence continues to plague the country. ![]() Then there are the emerging hot spots, including Sudan and Myanmar, and any number of potential flashpoints, like the China-India frontier and the Eastern Mediterranean. ![]() There are interminable conflicts, like the situations in Syria, Yemen and the Sahel, which have produced years of violence, countless thousands of deaths and even more refugees. The international order is fraying, generating uncertainty about who will intervene and how these interventions might be funded.
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